I read an interesting article that was sent to me about Twitter. The main premise was Twitter is a fad and the retentention rate was very low when compared to Myspace and Twitter. Read more from  eMarketer.

I’ve heard this argument with Facebook and MySpace as well.

This is what we have to keep an eye out for that will kill twitter. As some may think It will not be low adoption rates, but any combination of thease items.

• Fail to quickly monetize twitter
• Continue to anger the developers that build 3rd party apps around their platform
• Get bought to soon by a large company like Google
• Fail to change their underlying structure to scale correctly and add new features quickly
• Facebook turns around and opens their platform up so people from the outside can follow you through Facebook
• Not figuring out a way to keep new users engated early once they first sign up

Nielsen suggesting that the retention rate of 40% may be incorrect. Neilsen failed to account for all access points. Here is an article that rebuffs Neilson findings.

The methods in which people communicate is decentralized and fragmenting. This fragmentation and is happening at a faster rate.  For companies that are trying to get into the space, they have to assess what the underlying trend is and pick the right platform to put their marketing dollars towards.

I’ll go out on a limb and predict twitter will not be a hot platform 3 years from now.